Sunday, May 12, 2013

Not everything about the Cubs sucks completely

I don't write at length for myself very often these days (maybe 4 times in the past two years?) but I've got some time today so I decided to type up some observations from the most recent instance of something I do pretty much every day, which is look at Cubs stats.

The Cubs have one of the worst win-loss records in the major leagues, but they are actually pretty good at some things. The first baseman is hitting his way into the All-Star Game, and the starting pitching has been surprisingly, shockingly, delightfully good. It's the latter point I'll be writing a bit more about today.

Before Sunday, May 12, with about three dozen games in the books, Cubs starters as a staff were 6th in MLB in ERA. That's incredible. (Prefer FIP? They're 7th.) So how are they doing it?

First let's look at strikeouts. Of course, in the era of SABR, the strikeout has become king. That's because when hitters put the ball in play against you, they make outs roughly 70 percent of the time; when they strike out, it's closer to 100%. So are the Cubs getting Ks? The answer is yes -- they're 10th in K% (percent of batters faced that strike out).

But when I look at the Cubs' starting pitching performance, that's not what jumps out at me. Here's what I see:

1. They throw the fewest fastballs of any starting staff.

Seriously, if you believe Fangraphs' pitch classifications, they are 30th out of 30 teams. Part of that comes from the fact that Travis Wood and Scott Feldman each throw heat about 40% of the time, but then there's also good ol' Jeffy.

Jeff Samardzija's best pitch is his slider. I know this for two reasons. One, Fangraphs' pitch values suggests that it is true. Two, the Cubs front office appears to be altering Shark's approach based on what the data are suggesting. A guy that used to throw his heater nearly 70% of the time (2008-2009), then 60%, then 55%, is down to 47% fastballs thrown so far in 2013. What's he replacing the heat with? Sliders and cutters. Speaking of which.

2. The Cubs are 2nd in cut fastballs thrown, and 3rd in sliders thrown (as % of all pitches).

Point 2 follows pretty closely from point 1. Wood and Feldman each throw cutters about 30 percent of the time, and Shark is using his 13% of the time, his highest rate ever.

3. The Cubs are 28th in changeups thrown.

This ranking will fall even further if Carlos Villanueva is removed from the rotation for Garza, and I believe he will be. Charlie uses the change once every four pitches. Travis Wood will throw a few per game, and then that's basically it. Why so few changes? I think the Cubs prefer weak contact to swings and misses. Because:

4. The Cubs are fourth in GB%.

That's a lot of ground ball outs. Instead of playing the straight speed game (are FBs and CHs more vulnerable to the home run?), Cubs starters are using more moving stuff to prevent hitters from squaring up. Maybe the staff's exceptionally low BABIP is luck, or maybe it's because ground balls are scooped up more frequently than line drives? Or maybe I'm overinterpreting results.

Anyways, just some stuff I noticed.

No comments:

Post a Comment